Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -258 SFA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +5 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -7.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -6.3 (-1.3) | 145.6 (+27.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -8.5 (-3.5) | 147.4 (+25.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -8.3 (-3.3) | 148.1 (+24.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -8.6 (-3.6) | 146.6 (+26.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 20-2 |
| Home | 16-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#56) | 5.5 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#68) | 1.35 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#72) | 1.70 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#58) | 0.542 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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