Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | OKST -325 DAV +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +4 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | OKST -8.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -8.9 (-4.9) | 147.4 (+16.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -9.0 (-5.0) | 149.1 (+14.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -9.0 (-5.0) | 149.0 (+15.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -9.1 (-5.1) | 148.1 (+15.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#67) | 3.2 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#44) | 0.58 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#47) | 0.71 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#73) | 0.534 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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