Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | MSST +100 LT +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +22 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | LT -0.5 (+22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -1.1 (+23.1) | 134.1 (+11.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -0.1 (+21.9) | 133.8 (+12.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -1.3 (+23.3) | 135.3 (+10.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LT -1.0 (+23.0) | 134.5 (+11.5) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-5 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#78) | 8.1 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#79) | 1.70 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#79) | 2.05 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#110) | 0.581 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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