Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | CSU +115 NCSU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -0.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -0.5 (+3.5) | 142.0 (-16.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -0.1 (+3.9) | 137.7 (-11.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -0.3 (+4.3) | 139.0 (-13.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -0.4 (+3.6) | 142.5 (-16.5) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-8 |
| Home | 10-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#60) | 8.5 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#41) | 1.24 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#59) | 1.62 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#37) | 0.523 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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