Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP -188 CCU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +23 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -3.2 (+19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -2.2 (+20.8) | 152.0 (-7.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -1.3 (+21.7) | 151.4 (-6.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -2.3 (+20.7) | 152.6 (-7.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -2.1 (+20.9) | 152.8 (-7.8) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#113) | 1.1 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#97) | 0.57 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#101) | 0.68 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#106) | 0.528 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 43.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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