Betting Lines
| Spread | BELL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
| Money | PEPP +166 BELL -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -3.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -3.0 (+8.0) | 148.9 (+4.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -1.8 (+9.2) | 142.9 (+10.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -2.6 (+8.4) | 150.0 (+3.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -3.1 (+7.9) | 150.9 (+2.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 14-8 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 10-3 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-4 |
| Away | 3-5 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#113) | 0.3 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#103) | -0.08 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#105) | -0.07 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#122) | 0.509 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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