Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | CCU -300 STET +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | CCU -6.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -5.9 (-0.9) | 143.0 (+6.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -5.1 (-0.1) | 140.7 (+8.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -5.8 (-0.8) | 141.1 (+7.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -5.8 (-0.8) | 142.5 (+6.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#147) | -5.3 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#123) | -0.90 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#128) | -1.08 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#115) | 0.455 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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