Betting Lines
| Spread | BELL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | ARMY +110 BELL -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +10 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | ARMY -2.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -2.8 (-12.8) | 139.3 (+4.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -1.1 (-11.1) | 134.5 (+9.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -2.7 (-12.7) | 139.6 (+4.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -3.1 (-13.1) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#132) | -0.4 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#109) | -0.31 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#105) | -0.37 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#137) | 0.500 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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