Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | DAV -130 NCSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +14 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -1.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -0.8 (-14.8) | 139.0 (-3.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -1.4 (-15.4) | 133.5 (+2.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -1.2 (-15.2) | 135.8 (+0.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -0.6 (-14.6) | 137.9 (-1.9) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 7-4 | 9-8 |
| Home | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.8 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#59) | 8.0 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#88) | 1.20 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#77) | 1.52 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#146) | 0.517 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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