Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -120 TXSO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +8 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -3.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -1.6 (-9.6) | 132.5 (-20.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -1.7 (-9.7) | 131.5 (-19.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -2.1 (-10.1) | 132.7 (-20.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -1.8 (-9.8) | 131.7 (-19.7) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-3 |
| Home | 6-3 | 8-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#177) | -4.1 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#156) | 0.21 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#154) | -0.35 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#88) | 0.534 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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