Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
| Money | SMC -125 WKU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -1.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -0.6 (-2.6) | 126.2 (+9.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -0.4 (-1.6) | 127.7 (+8.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -0.6 (-2.6) | 127.6 (+8.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -1.3 (-3.3) | 125.6 (+10.4) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#86) | 5.5 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#55) | 1.67 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#62) | 1.83 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#48) | 0.576 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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