Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SIUE +450 EKU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIUE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | EKU -8.6 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -7.3 (+3.3) | 152.2 (-0.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -6.3 (+2.3) | 153.1 (-1.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -8.4 (+4.4) | 154.5 (-2.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -7.0 (+3.0) | 152.2 (-0.2) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIUE | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-17 | 22-7 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 2-8 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#313) | 0.8 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#281) | 0.51 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#290) | -0.10 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#255) | 0.516 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIUE | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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