Betting Lines
| Spread | CIT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CIT -165 STET +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +22 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | CIT -12.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -6.4 (+15.6) | 138.1 (-12.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -8.2 (+13.8) | 139.2 (-13.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -5.8 (+16.2) | 141.2 (-15.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 6-12 |
| Home | 5-12 | 5-9 |
| Away | 0-12 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L24 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#232) | -3.8 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#282) | -2.14 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#289) | -2.88 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#253) | 0.250 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 12.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 2.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 10.1% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 6.9% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.7% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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