Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | IONA -950 COPP +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +20 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -16.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -12.8 (+7.2) | 137.8 (+12.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -12.9 (+7.1) | 140.0 (+10.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -14.3 (+5.7) | 139.0 (+11.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -13.8 (+6.2) | 136.9 (+13.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#157) | -12.0 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#173) | -1.70 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#177) | -2.45 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#177) | 0.415 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 16.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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