Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | USD +150 NEV -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +7 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -1.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -0.8 (-6.2) | 138.6 (+12.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -1.2 (-5.8) | 137.0 (+14.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -0.1 (-6.9) | 137.3 (+13.7) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2021 | USD 75 – 68 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-11 | 16-10 |
| Conference | 2-7 | 10-7 |
| Home | 0-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#257) | 1.2 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#183) | 0.22 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#179) | -0.18 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#85) | 0.588 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.1% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.7% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 56.8% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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