Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +14 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -17.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -17.4 (-3.4) | 145.3 (-23.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -16.2 (-2.2) | 145.0 (-23.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -20.1 (-6.1) | 144.4 (-22.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -17.2 (-3.2) | 143.8 (-21.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 5-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 4-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 82.8 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#35) | -0.4 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#62) | -1.35 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#55) | -1.62 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#76) | 0.466 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 27.5% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 32.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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