Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +22 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -36.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -25.3 (-3.3) | 153.1 (+0.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -24.3 (-2.3) | 152.1 (+1.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -32.8 (-10.8) | 154.6 (-0.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -33.9 (-11.9) | 154.4 (-0.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-10 | 19-9 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 13-3 |
| Home | 11-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#5) | -11.8 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#103) | -0.63 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#99) | -0.64 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#60) | 0.518 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.3% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 27.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.9% | 39.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 39.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 55.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 39.7% |
Game Analysis
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