Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -110 GW -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +11 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -11.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -7.8 (+3.2) | 153.9 (+19.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -9.6 (+1.4) | 146.2 (+26.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -9.3 (+1.7) | 146.9 (+26.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -9.8 (+1.2) | 147.7 (+25.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | GW 89 – 52 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-6 | 5-12 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 3-5 |
| Home | 5-4 | 3-6 |
| Away | 9-2 | 1-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#71) | 0.8 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#83) | -1.00 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#60) | -1.32 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#195) | 0.347 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 23.9% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.6% | 10.9% |
Game Analysis
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