Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -140 HALL +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HALL +6 | 190 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -8.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+44.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -9.4 (-15.4) | 144.4 (+45.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -6.4 (-12.4) | 138.2 (+51.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -9.4 (-15.4) | 144.9 (+45.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -9.2 (-15.2) | 145.5 (+44.5) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 10-9 |
| Home | 7-5 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#63) | 5.2 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#32) | -0.34 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#29) | -0.10 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.725 (#16) | 0.477 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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