Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | CCU +135 FRES -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -3.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.2 (+36.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -1.2 (-9.8) | 130.6 (+28.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -1.2 (-9.8) | 130.1 (+28.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -1.8 (-9.2) | 131.0 (+28.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -2.2 (-8.8) | 129.9 (+29.1) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-9 |
| Home | 13-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 59.6 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#139) | 7.4 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#157) | 1.07 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#163) | 1.48 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#130) | 0.527 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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