Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -185 XAV +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -0.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -0.1 (-0.9) | 138.1 (+6.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -0.2 (-0.8) | 140.3 (+4.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -0.8 (-1.8) | 143.6 (+1.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -0.2 (-1.2) | 139.8 (+5.2) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-13 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-11 |
| Home | 16-4 | 16-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#39) | 10.9 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#35) | 2.17 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#34) | 2.49 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#59) | 0.569 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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