Betting Lines
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | XAV +115 SBU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +7 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -3.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -2.0 (+5.0) | 137.9 (+23.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -3.3 (+3.7) | 141.1 (+19.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -2.8 (+4.2) | 140.9 (+20.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -2.7 (+4.3) | 139.5 (+21.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 12-5 |
| Home | 16-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#39) | 7.4 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#40) | 2.00 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#47) | 2.13 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#63) | 0.586 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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