Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | FRES -320 SUU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +19 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -9.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -7.0 (+12.0) | 133.3 (-18.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -9.8 (+9.2) | 137.1 (-22.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -10.8 (+8.2) | 140.8 (-25.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -9.5 (+9.5) | 137.6 (-22.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#84) | 0.1 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#99) | 0.40 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#89) | 0.36 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#126) | 0.539 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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