Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -1200 YSU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -15.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -11.2 (-2.2) | 128.5 (+22.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -13.4 (-4.4) | 131.5 (+19.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -14.2 (-5.2) | 132.7 (+18.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -13.2 (-4.2) | 132.9 (+18.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 12-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#79) | -5.1 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#98) | -1.12 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#89) | -1.32 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#130) | 0.444 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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