Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | UNCW +170 MTSU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +6 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -4.9 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+48.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -2.9 (+8.9) | 138.3 (+47.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -3.5 (+9.5) | 140.9 (+45.1) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -3.2 (+9.2) | 142.0 (+44.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -3.1 (+9.1) | 139.1 (+46.9) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#160) | 5.2 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#100) | 0.99 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#119) | 1.14 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#84) | 0.569 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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