Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -140 VAN +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -4.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -5.2 (-3.2) | 146.2 (+1.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -5.4 (-3.4) | 146.7 (+1.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -5.9 (-3.9) | 148.2 (-0.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -5.5 (-3.5) | 148.4 (-0.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-5 | 11-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#38) | 9.1 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#41) | 1.42 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#48) | 1.60 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#68) | 0.549 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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