Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | UTEP -180 SUU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +13 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UTEP -4.6 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTEP -3.9 (-16.9) | 142.1 (+8.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -5.6 (-18.6) | 143.8 (+7.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTEP -5.4 (-18.4) | 145.1 (+5.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -5.5 (-18.5) | 144.6 (+6.4) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | -0.7 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#139) | 0.20 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#162) | 0.13 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#142) | 0.530 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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