Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -145 SBU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +1 | 103 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -2.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -3.4 (-4.4) | 120.5 (-17.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -3.1 (-4.1) | 126.6 (-23.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -4.1 (-5.1) | 126.8 (-23.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -3.0 (-4.0) | 123.7 (-20.7) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-5 |
| Home | 11-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#79) | 7.3 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#55) | 1.87 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#67) | 2.08 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#73) | 0.581 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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