Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Under |
| Money | UNCO +115 UNCW -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +16 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -2.3 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -1.8 (-14.2) | 147.3 (-3.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -2.2 (-13.8) | 149.6 (-5.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.7 (-13.3) | 150.5 (-6.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.8 (-13.2) | 149.8 (-5.8) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-9 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#214) | -0.2 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#161) | 0.97 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#176) | 0.67 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#112) | 0.539 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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