Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ACU +105 OHIO -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +5 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -0.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+37.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -0.1 (+4.9) | 140.0 (+37.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -0.4 (+4.6) | 140.2 (+36.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -0.6 (+4.4) | 141.1 (+35.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -0.8 (+4.2) | 141.1 (+35.9) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#116) | 2.7 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#112) | 0.78 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#112) | 0.92 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#122) | 0.544 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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