Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | USA -450 UPST +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | USA -11.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -10.6 (-6.6) | 142.7 (+19.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -10.5 (-6.5) | 143.3 (+18.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -10.8 (-6.8) | 144.0 (+18.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -10.6 (-6.6) | 144.7 (+17.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#139) | -6.9 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#144) | -0.62 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#142) | -0.97 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#116) | 0.485 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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