Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | CCU -155 FGCU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +16 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | CCU -5.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -6.1 (+9.9) | 146.6 (+5.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -5.8 (+10.2) | 146.9 (+5.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -5.2 (+10.8) | 149.0 (+3.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -5.3 (+10.7) | 147.0 (+5.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#151) | -1.4 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#181) | -0.05 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#175) | -0.30 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#158) | 0.503 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.