Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | BU +185 MTSU -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +30 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -6.4 (-23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -4.3 (-25.7) | 138.0 (-16.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -5.1 (-24.9) | 142.1 (-20.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -5.5 (-24.5) | 143.3 (-21.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -5.1 (-24.9) | 140.5 (-18.5) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#206) | 4.4 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#203) | 0.95 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#213) | 1.09 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#187) | 0.564 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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