Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
| Money | UNCA +100 UNCO -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +3 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -0.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.1 (-3.1) | 152.0 (+19.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -0.0 (-3.0) | 152.7 (+18.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -0.1 (-3.1) | 153.5 (+17.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -0.1 (-3.1) | 154.2 (+16.8) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#215) | -2.6 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#221) | 0.06 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#216) | -0.04 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#214) | 0.527 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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