Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW +225 DRKE -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | DRKE -7.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -7.0 (+8.0) | 135.8 (+15.2) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -5.1 (+6.1) | 138.5 (+12.5) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -5.0 (+6.0) | 138.8 (+12.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -5.1 (+6.1) | 137.5 (+13.5) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-6 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#172) | 7.4 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#111) | 1.01 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#128) | 1.15 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#110) | 0.536 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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