Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | OU -240 SBU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | OU -8.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -7.1 (-9.1) | 134.8 (+3.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -8.3 (-10.3) | 135.4 (+2.6) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OU -8.7 (-10.7) | 134.9 (+3.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -7.8 (-9.8) | 134.8 (+3.2) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#27) | 7.0 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#38) | 1.73 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#27) | 1.97 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#90) | 0.576 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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