Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -145 BEL +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -3.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -2.7 (+8.3) | 144.3 (+8.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -3.8 (+7.2) | 143.2 (+9.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -4.2 (+6.8) | 143.1 (+9.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -3.9 (+7.1) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-8 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#60) | 8.3 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#79) | 1.64 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#86) | 1.83 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#85) | 0.587 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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