Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -320 PRIN +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +11 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -7.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -9.1 (+1.9) | 140.1 (+28.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -7.9 (+3.1) | 138.1 (+30.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -8.1 (+2.9) | 139.6 (+29.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -7.5 (+3.5) | 142.0 (+27.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 23-7 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-2 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#64) | 4.0 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#48) | 1.03 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#63) | 1.08 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#35) | 0.537 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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