(16)
Texas Southern
Tigers
76
–
67
FINAL
Neutral
NCAA Tournament
(16)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Islanders
Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -3.5 Home covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -3.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -4.1 (+4.9) | 138.1 (+4.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -2.9 (+6.1) | 136.3 (+6.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -3.0 (+6.0) | 137.5 (+5.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -2.5 (+6.5) | 138.5 (+4.5) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 7-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#182) | -4.4 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#204) | -0.78 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#205) | -1.02 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#168) | 0.451 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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