Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | APP -525 UPST +415 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -10.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -10.7 (-16.7) | 138.5 (+15.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -10.6 (-16.6) | 137.1 (+16.9) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -11.1 (-17.1) | 137.8 (+16.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -11.3 (-17.3) | 139.2 (+14.8) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#162) | -7.5 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#140) | -0.81 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#141) | -1.22 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#78) | 0.477 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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