Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -29.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +22 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -27.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -26.8 (-4.8) | 142.2 (-14.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -22.9 (-0.9) | 143.9 (-15.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -25.8 (-3.8) | 142.3 (-14.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -26.9 (-4.9) | 143.2 (-15.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-0 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#21) | -8.8 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#33) | -2.16 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#34) | -3.06 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#117) | 0.423 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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