Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -34.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +30 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -29.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -27.1 (+2.9) | 144.3 (+11.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -23.2 (+6.8) | 139.4 (+16.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -25.7 (+4.3) | 138.7 (+17.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -24.8 (+5.2) | 144.3 (+11.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 7-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 20.6 (#5) | -4.5 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#24) | -0.35 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.22 (#16) | -0.64 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#47) | 0.496 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.4% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.