Betting Lines
| Spread | WYO -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | USF +255 WYO -310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WYO +20 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | WYO -13.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WYO -8.5 (-11.5) | 127.4 (+6.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WYO -10.1 (-9.9) | 126.8 (+7.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WYO -10.6 (-9.4) | 126.5 (+7.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WYO -11.6 (-8.4) | 127.7 (+6.3) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | WYO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-10 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#230) | 10.5 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#252) | 2.42 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#239) | 2.95 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#281) | 0.590 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | WYO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 23.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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