Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.0 Over |
| Money | HAW -160 USF +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +7 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -6.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.7 (+27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -3.8 (-10.8) | 130.3 (+14.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -5.0 (-12.0) | 128.6 (+16.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -5.0 (-12.0) | 128.1 (+16.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -4.4 (-11.4) | 128.7 (+16.3) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-11 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 10-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-10 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#214) | -3.9 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#263) | -1.27 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#261) | -1.52 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#282) | 0.419 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 40.1% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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