Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -1450 FAMU +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -12.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -14.0 (-3.0) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -9.5 (+1.5) | 140.6 (-5.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -10.0 (+1.0) | 140.2 (-5.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -9.9 (+1.1) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-11 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#183) | -7.7 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#293) | -2.30 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#289) | -3.25 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#325) | 0.417 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 23.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 39.7% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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