East Carolina
Pirates
64
–
74
FINAL
Neutral
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Liberty
Flames
Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -0.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -0.0 (-10.0) | 129.2 (+8.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -0.3 (-10.3) | 132.9 (+5.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -0.9 (-10.9) | 133.1 (+4.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -0.7 (-10.7) | 131.2 (+6.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#174) | 0.7 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#101) | -0.35 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#109) | -0.95 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#161) | 0.474 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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