Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +11 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -9.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -9.7 (+1.3) | 137.7 (+29.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -7.9 (+3.1) | 140.9 (+26.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -8.4 (+2.6) | 141.0 (+26.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -7.8 (+3.2) | 139.8 (+27.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#144) | -3.3 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#123) | -0.75 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#126) | -0.68 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#107) | 0.485 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 12.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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