Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UTEP -13.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTEP -13.6 (-3.6) | 137.5 (+16.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -10.4 (-0.4) | 137.0 (+17.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTEP -11.5 (-1.5) | 137.1 (+16.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -13.2 (-3.2) | 139.0 (+15.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#142) | -7.3 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#141) | -1.58 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#136) | -2.08 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#172) | 0.480 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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