Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +21 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -6.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -10.8 (+10.2) | 132.7 (+12.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -6.3 (+14.7) | 135.7 (+9.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -6.3 (+14.7) | 135.9 (+9.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -7.3 (+13.7) | 135.3 (+9.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#218) | -4.0 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#228) | -1.70 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#222) | -2.15 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#242) | 0.455 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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