Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +25 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -23.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -19.4 (+5.6) | 139.8 (+19.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -19.6 (+5.4) | 140.5 (+18.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -21.7 (+3.3) | 141.8 (+17.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -21.0 (+4.0) | 141.3 (+17.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-2 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#8) | -0.1 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#20) | -0.16 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#18) | 0.24 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#21) | 0.488 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.95 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 79.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.4% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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